Source: IEA: Renewables 2018 Market analysis and forecast from 2018 to 2023
With 1.9 GW coming online, China is expected to overtake the United States to have the second-largest CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) installed capacity by 2023, as global deployment nearly doubles over the next five years from today’s 5 GW.
CSP is expected to grow 87% (4.3 GW) over the forecast period, 32% more than in 2012‑17.
China leads at 1.9 GW, followed by 1 GW from projects receiving multilateral development bank support in Morocco and South Africa, 1 GW in the Middle East, and 300 MW each in Australia and Chile. Spain and the United States, the two countries with the most installed capacity, at 2.3 GW and 1.3 GW respectively, have no projects in the commissioning pipeline over the forecast period.
Faster progress of announced and permitted projects in China (0.6 GW), South Africa (0.55 GW), Morocco (0.4 GW), Chile (0.3 GW), and the United Arab Emirates (0.3 GW) could result in CSP growth being 60% higher (2.6 GW) – the accelerated case,
Recent auction results indicate significant cost‑reduction potential, but technology risk, restricted access to financing, long project lead-times, and market designs that do not value storage continue to challenge CSP deployment.